While G20 meetings are supposed to be about economic issues, the participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping means the Ukraine war and Taiwan tensions will become a focus, says former diplomat James Carouso.
Despite so many world leaders being given the chance to confront him, Putin will still see this as an opportunity.
He can say he offered to meet with United States President Joe Biden without preconditions, and Biden will turn him down. This is because Biden cannot afford the US domestic political cost of a meeting that will not result in progress. Even better would be the opportunity to use this to create a split among Ukraine’s Western supporters. Might he combine this meeting with, timely as the mercury starts to fall in the coming winter months? This could divide opinions on the US call for a weakened Russia.
Perhaps this is why many analysts expect a near-term push by Russia to take Ukraine-controlled parts of the Donbas region and why Ukraine seems poised to try retaking Kherson in southern Ukraine.Putin knows how to play the long game. He likely expects encouragement for any feints towards peace from such G20 members as Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey and India.
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