How did the candidates fare in the second round of Democratic debates? NateSilver538 breaks it down:
given the historical accuracy of primary polls at this stage. And he’s shown some resilience, having already bounced back in the polling average to where he was before the first debate, and then having had a second debate which — while it wasn’t great, in my view — was better than the first one despite a lot of incoming fire from other Democrats. I’m still a seller of the proposition that Biden is an odds-on favorite to win the nomination — that is, I think his chances are under 50 percent.
With that said, I’d keep an eye on Warren, whose strong first-night performance looks better by comparison after a series of uneven evenings for the Democrats last night. She has a clearer message than Harris, and she makes for a sharper contrast to Biden, whom she hasn’t had a chance to share a debate stage with yet.tempted to say that Sanders’s chances have become underrated if prediction markets have him at under 10 percent to win the nomination.
I do have Cory Booker moving up a tier, from Tier 3 to Tier 2. He was maybe the strongest performer last night from start to finish, he’s been
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